Italy vs Croatia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.6%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.4%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
30.1%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun. 2012 |
ESP
1 - 1
ITA
72%
17%
11%
|
94 | 99 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2012 |
ITA
0 - 3
RUS
60%
23%
17%
|
95 | 91 | 4 | -1 |
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
ITA
0 - 1
USA
66%
22%
12%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | -1 |
| 15 Nov. 2011 |
ITA
0 - 1
URY
53%
25%
22%
|
97 | 94 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Nov. 2011 |
POL
0 - 2
ITA
28%
28%
45%
|
97 | 90 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Croatia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun. 2012 |
IRL
1 - 3
HRV
34%
26%
40%
|
93 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2012 |
NOR
1 - 1
HRV
35%
27%
38%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2012 |
HRV
3 - 1
EST
82%
13%
5%
|
93 | 73 | 20 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
HRV
1 - 3
SWE
54%
24%
22%
|
94 | 93 | 1 | -1 |
| 15 Nov. 2011 |
HRV
0 - 0
TUR
63%
22%
15%
|
95 | 91 | 4 | -1 |