Northern Ireland vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
8.4%
Win probability
0.46
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
1.4%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
1.9%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
6.8%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
10%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
0
20.4%
71.2%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
0-1
18.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.4%
0-2
17%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
22.3%
0-3
10.5%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.2%
-3
12.8%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
5.7%
0-5
1.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2021 |
NIR
1 - 0
LTU
73%
18%
9%
|
78 | 56 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2021 |
BGR
2 - 1
NIR
51%
26%
23%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2021 |
CHE
2 - 0
NIR
81%
13%
6%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2021 |
NIR
0 - 0
CHE
11%
21%
67%
|
78 | 89 | 11 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
EST
0 - 1
NIR
29%
27%
44%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 1
CHE
61%
22%
18%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2021 |
ITA
2 - 1
BEL
32%
24%
44%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 2
ESP
29%
24%
48%
|
93 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2021 |
ITA
5 - 0
LTU
88%
9%
3%
|
93 | 55 | 38 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
CHE
0 - 0
ITA
31%
26%
44%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |