Northern Ireland vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
10.1%
Win probability
0.5
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.3%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
<0%
+2
1.8%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
2.3%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
8%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
10.8%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
22.3%
67.6%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
18.7%
1-2
8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.9%
0-2
16.1%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
21.3%
0-3
9.3%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.2%
-3
11.5%
0-4
4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0%
-4
4.8%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2006 |
NIR
0 - 3
ISL
53%
26%
21%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2006 |
FIN
1 - 2
NIR
60%
23%
17%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | +1 |
| 27 May. 2006 |
NIR
0 - 2
ROU
18%
25%
57%
|
83 | 93 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2006 |
URY
1 - 0
NIR
70%
20%
10%
|
84 | 91 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Mar. 2006 |
NIR
1 - 0
EST
68%
20%
12%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2006 |
ESP
4 - 0
LIE
95%
5%
1%
|
99 | 21 | 78 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2006 |
ISL
0 - 0
ESP
11%
22%
68%
|
99 | 79 | 20 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2006 |
ESP
1 - 3
FRA
43%
25%
33%
|
99 | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2006 |
SAU
0 - 1
ESP
2%
11%
87%
|
99 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2006 |
ESP
3 - 1
TUN
91%
8%
2%
|
99 | 86 | 13 | 0 |