UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 2-5
Sarajevo vs Celtic analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
34%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.8%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.1%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
40.5%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sarajevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun. 2019 |
DOM
3 - 2
SAR
48%
24%
28%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2019 |
SAR
0 - 2
SLO
65%
21%
15%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2019 |
GOS
0 - 2
SAR
8%
20%
72%
|
81 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2019 |
SAR
4 - 0
ZBE
78%
15%
7%
|
81 | 62 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2019 |
SIR
1 - 0
SAR
31%
25%
45%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Celtic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 2019 |
WIE
1 - 2
CEL
8%
17%
75%
|
86 | 47 | 39 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2019 |
PIN
1 - 6
CEL
5%
13%
83%
|
86 | 25 | 61 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2019 |
HOM
1 - 2
CEL
19%
22%
59%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2019 |
CEL
2 - 1
HOM
77%
16%
7%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2019 |
GLA
2 - 0
CEL
33%
25%
42%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |