Copa Sudamericana Semi-finals

Aggregate 3-3

São Paulo vs River Plate predictions

São Paulo River Plate
89 ELO 87
11.7% Tilt 19.3%
111º General ELO ranking 147º
5º Country ELO ranking 4º
ELO win probability
57.5%
São Paulo
21.6%
Draw
20.8%
River Plate

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57.6%
Win probability
São Paulo
1.98
Expected goals (xG)
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.9%
2-0
9%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
20.8%
Win probability
River Plate
1.11
Expected goals (xG)
0-1
5.1%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
São Paulo
-8%
-5%
River Plate

ELO progression

São Paulo
River Plate
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

São Paulo
São Paulo
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
30 Nov. 2003
PPE
Ponte Preta
1 - 2
São Paulo
SAO
31%
24%
45%
89 83 6 0
26 Nov. 2003
RIV
River Plate
3 - 1
São Paulo
SAO
42%
24%
34%
89 87 2 0
23 Nov. 2003
SAO
São Paulo
3 - 1
Vitória
VIT
69%
18%
13%
89 83 6 0
12 Nov. 2003
SAO
São Paulo
3 - 1
The Strongest
STR
80%
13%
6%
89 78 11 0
09 Nov. 2003
ATP
Athletico Paranaense
4 - 3
São Paulo
SAO
31%
25%
44%
89 84 5 0

Matches

River Plate
River Plate
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
30 Nov. 2003
LAN
Lanús
2 - 0
River Plate
RIV
28%
25%
47%
87 81 6 0
26 Nov. 2003
RIV
River Plate
3 - 1
São Paulo
SAO
42%
24%
34%
87 89 2 0
23 Nov. 2003
CHA
Chacarita Juniors
1 - 0
River Plate
RIV
24%
24%
53%
87 79 8 0
09 Nov. 2003
RIV
River Plate
0 - 2
Boca Juniors
BOC
53%
23%
24%
88 87 1 -1
05 Nov. 2003
LIB
Libertad
1 - 0
River Plate
RIV
32%
25%
43%
88 82 6 0