Copa do Brasil . 1/32
First-leg 2-1
São Caetano vs Maranhão analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.5%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.2%
3-0
11.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.4%
2-0
14.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.6%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
16.4%
8%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.2%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Caetano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2008 |
SAO
1 - 6
GRÊ
64%
22%
14%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2008 |
GUA
0 - 1
SAO
30%
25%
44%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2008 |
SAO
2 - 1
RIO
70%
19%
11%
|
74 | 51 | 23 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2008 |
MAR
1 - 2
SAO
14%
21%
66%
|
74 | 44 | 30 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2008 |
SAO
0 - 2
PAU
56%
24%
21%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Maranhão
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 2008 |
MAR
1 - 2
SAO
14%
21%
66%
|
44 | 74 | 30 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2007 |
MAR
1 - 2
IMP
56%
23%
21%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2007 |
IMP
0 - 1
MAR
46%
25%
29%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Dec. 2007 |
BAC
2 - 1
MAR
43%
25%
32%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Dec. 2007 |
MAR
2 - 0
BAC
51%
24%
25%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | +1 |