Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 3-4
Real Madrid vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.3%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
21.9%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 1968 |
RMA
2 - 0
PUE
86%
10%
4%
|
89 | 62 | 27 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1968 |
MAL
1 - 0
RMA
20%
27%
54%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 0
RMA
58%
21%
21%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1968 |
RMA
2 - 1
UDL
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1968 |
RMA
1 - 0
PON
82%
13%
6%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 2
SUN
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1968 |
MUD
6 - 0
NEW
77%
15%
8%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 1968 |
WBA
6 - 3
MUD
43%
25%
32%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 0
RMA
58%
21%
21%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 0
SHE
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |