Copa del Rey . Semi-finals
Global 5-3
Real Madrid vs Celta analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.9%
Win probability
2.92
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.3%
5-0
5.5%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.1%
4-0
9.4%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.8%
3-0
12.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
19%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
9%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.6%
10.6%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
5%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
10.6%
4.5%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun. 1968 |
CEL
3 - 2
RMA
28%
25%
48%
|
89 | 69 | 20 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1968 |
RMA
2 - 0
ZAR
70%
17%
13%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 1968 |
ZAR
3 - 2
RMA
50%
23%
28%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1968 |
SEV
3 - 4
RMA
27%
25%
48%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1968 |
RMA
1 - 0
SEV
84%
11%
6%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Celta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun. 1968 |
CEL
3 - 2
RMA
28%
25%
48%
|
69 | 89 | 20 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 1968 |
CEL
2 - 1
ELC
48%
24%
29%
|
68 | 79 | 11 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 1968 |
CEL
3 - 0
ELC
44%
24%
32%
|
66 | 80 | 14 | +2 |
| 09 Jun. 1968 |
ELC
3 - 0
CEL
76%
15%
9%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | -1 |
| 02 Jun. 1968 |
CEL
2 - 1
PON
55%
22%
24%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | +1 |