Notch vs SNL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
46.6%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
29.5%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-94%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notch
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2009 |
SJH
2 - 2
NOT
68%
18%
14%
|
29 | 37 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2009 |
ROY
2 - 1
NOT
27%
24%
49%
|
29 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2009 |
KAM
2 - 2
NOT
49%
23%
28%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2009 |
NOT
4 - 1
DES
62%
21%
17%
|
29 | 22 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2009 |
NOT
0 - 1
ELI
64%
20%
15%
|
29 | 23 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
SNL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2009 |
SNL
0 - 1
YOR
45%
24%
31%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2009 |
SNL
2 - 3
TBR
52%
23%
25%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
PSV
0 - 4
SNL
13%
20%
67%
|
31 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2009 |
SNL
2 - 3
PEU
64%
20%
16%
|
32 | 22 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 Mar. 2009 |
SNL
2 - 2
DES
65%
20%
15%
|
33 | 22 | 11 | -1 |