Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
47.8%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
27.1%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1991 |
OLD
1 - 1
NEW
73%
17%
11%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1990 |
NEW
0 - 2
NOT
61%
22%
16%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1990 |
NEW
1 - 1
SWI
59%
23%
19%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1990 |
BRO
1 - 1
NEW
38%
29%
33%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1990 |
PLY
0 - 1
NEW
42%
28%
30%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1991 |
DER
1 - 1
COV
46%
28%
26%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1990 |
EVE
2 - 0
DER
68%
21%
11%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1990 |
ARS
3 - 0
DER
76%
17%
7%
|
78 | 89 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1990 |
DER
1 - 1
QPR
48%
27%
25%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 1990 |
DER
4 - 6
CHL
38%
27%
36%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | -1 |