Newcastle vs Brentford analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57.1%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.7%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
20.8%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
6º
17º
8º
36
5º
17º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 83 |
1º
|
75.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 77 |
2º
|
55% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 70 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 68 |
4º
|
27% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 64 |
5º
|
27% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 63 |
6º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
36 | 54 |
7º
|
17% | |
|
|
11º
|
33 | 54 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
13º
|
31 | 52 |
9º
|
10% | |
|
9º
|
34 | 52 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
12º
|
33 | 51 |
11º
|
11% | |
|
14º
|
29 | 50 |
12º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 49 |
13º
|
14% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 47 |
14º
|
14.5% | |
|
8º
|
36 | 46 |
15º
|
18.5% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 44 |
16º
|
23% | |
|
17º
|
26 | 38 |
17º
|
51% | |
|
18º
|
20 | 35 |
18º
|
61.5% | |
|
19º
|
15 | 27 |
19º
|
70% | |
|
20º
|
8 | 20 |
20º
|
87% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
1.5% | 1% |
|
Europa League
|
4% | 2.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
94.5% | 96.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 2026 |
MAC
3 - 1
NEW
72%
16%
12%
|
90 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2026 |
LIV
4 - 1
NEW
55%
22%
23%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2026 |
PSG
1 - 1
NEW
66%
19%
16%
|
90 | 95 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2026 |
NEW
0 - 2
ASV
45%
24%
31%
|
91 | 91 | 0 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2026 |
NEW
3 - 0
PSV
34%
23%
43%
|
90 | 92 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2026 |
ASV
0 - 1
BRE
61%
21%
18%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2026 |
BRE
0 - 2
NTT
58%
22%
21%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2026 |
CHL
2 - 0
BRE
61%
21%
18%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2026 |
SHW
0 - 2
BRE
10%
19%
71%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2026 |
BRE
3 - 0
SUN
69%
19%
12%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |