Nacional vs Chapecoense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.5%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
19.3%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+29%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2017 |
FEN
0 - 1
NAC
30%
27%
43%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2017 |
CHA
1 - 1
NAC
44%
26%
30%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2017 |
CER
1 - 3
NAC
25%
27%
48%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2017 |
NAC
2 - 1
MWA
60%
23%
17%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2017 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
NAC
40%
26%
34%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | +2 |
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2017 |
CRI
1 - 0
CHA
23%
25%
53%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2017 |
CHA
1 - 1
NAC
44%
26%
30%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2017 |
CHA
2 - 0
JEC
76%
17%
8%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2017 |
MET
1 - 3
CHA
10%
20%
70%
|
84 | 58 | 26 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2017 |
CHA
2 - 1
NAC
35%
27%
38%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | +1 |