Millwall vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.4%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.4%
1-0
11%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.7%
35.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millwall
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2018 |
MIL
2 - 2
ROC
63%
21%
16%
|
68 | 56 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2018 |
LEE
3 - 4
MIL
47%
27%
26%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2018 |
MIL
1 - 1
PNE
41%
27%
32%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2018 |
MIL
4 - 1
BAR
46%
25%
29%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | +2 |
| 01 Jan. 2018 |
NOR
2 - 1
MIL
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2018 |
DER
0 - 0
BRI
44%
26%
30%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2018 |
BIR
0 - 3
DER
23%
27%
50%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | +1 |
| 05 Jan. 2018 |
MUD
2 - 0
DER
75%
18%
8%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | -1 |
| 01 Jan. 2018 |
DER
1 - 1
SHE
49%
25%
26%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2017 |
IPS
1 - 2
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | +1 |