Champions League . Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Milan vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
4.1%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.9%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
42.6%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.5%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
12.8%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 1964 |
ACM
0 - 1
LAZ
85%
10%
5%
|
89 | 70 | 19 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1964 |
MES
1 - 2
ACM
16%
23%
61%
|
89 | 65 | 24 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1964 |
RMA
4 - 1
ACM
84%
10%
6%
|
89 | 94 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1964 |
ACM
1 - 0
MAN
82%
12%
7%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 1964 |
ACM
1 - 1
SPA
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1964 |
RMA
1 - 0
ESP
92%
6%
2%
|
94 | 75 | 19 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1964 |
CCF
0 - 1
RMA
10%
20%
70%
|
94 | 75 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1964 |
RMA
4 - 1
ACM
84%
10%
6%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1964 |
RMA
2 - 1
VAD
91%
7%
3%
|
94 | 76 | 18 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 1964 |
RMA
1 - 0
ELC
88%
8%
4%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | 0 |