ACR Messina vs Castrovillari analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.7%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
6.9%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
+4
8.7%
3-0
12.1%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
15.9%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.1%
1-0
14%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
+1
23.9%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
15.6%
6.7%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
5.3%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+37%
-47%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2009 |
ASR
0 - 0
MES
18%
25%
57%
|
59 | 35 | 24 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2009 |
MES
1 - 2
ACP
76%
16%
8%
|
59 | 28 | 31 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2009 |
MES
1 - 1
ACA
77%
16%
7%
|
60 | 27 | 33 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2008 |
SPC
5 - 0
MES
20%
26%
55%
|
61 | 37 | 24 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 2008 |
MES
2 - 1
VIC
74%
17%
9%
|
60 | 36 | 24 | +1 |
Matches
Castrovillari
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2009 |
USC
0 - 0
ACA
41%
25%
34%
|
23 | 27 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2009 |
SPC
2 - 3
USC
74%
16%
9%
|
22 | 39 | 17 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2009 |
USC
2 - 2
VIC
25%
24%
51%
|
21 | 37 | 16 | +1 |
| 04 Jan. 2009 |
USC
1 - 4
TUR
26%
25%
49%
|
23 | 36 | 13 | -2 |
| 21 Dec. 2008 |
COM
2 - 1
USC
60%
22%
18%
|
23 | 29 | 6 | 0 |