Messancy vs Bastogne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
2.58
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.3%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
6%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
17.7%
18.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
9º
7º
19
5º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 51 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
48 | 48 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 47 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
42 | 45 |
5º
|
79.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
79.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
41 | 41 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 32 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
26 | 26 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 22 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 20 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 19 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Messancy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
SAR
5 - 3
MES
61%
19%
20%
|
24 | 27 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
MES
2 - 2
OPP
27%
21%
51%
|
23 | 31 | 8 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
RUS
0 - 5
MES
31%
22%
47%
|
22 | 18 | 4 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2022 |
MES
5 - 1
RES
50%
21%
29%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | +1 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
MES
3 - 2
JEU
44%
22%
34%
|
20 | 22 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Bastogne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
BAS
0 - 3
JEU
40%
24%
37%
|
21 | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
GOU
3 - 1
BAS
66%
19%
15%
|
21 | 29 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 2
VAU
25%
22%
53%
|
21 | 27 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2022 |
CHA
1 - 1
BAS
43%
22%
34%
|
21 | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
BAS
4 - 2
LAR
46%
24%
30%
|
21 | 20 | 1 | 0 |