Paulista A3 round 5

Marília vs Flamengo analysis

Marília Flamengo
51 ELO 76
1.9% Tilt 1%
3913º General ELO ranking 67º
129º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
15.7%
Marília
21.3%
Draw
63%
Flamengo

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
15.7%
Win probability
Marília
0.85
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.7%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
4.3%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.8%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
63%
Win probability
Flamengo
1.94
Expected goals
0-1
11.9%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.8%
0-2
11.6%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.4%
0-3
7.5%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
11.1%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Marília
-12%
+13%
Flamengo

ELO progression

Marília
Flamengo
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Marília
Marília
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
04 May. 2013
IND
Independente SP
0 - 2
Marília
MAR
44%
24%
33%
50 50 0 0
28 Apr. 2013
MAR
Marília
1 - 1
Independente SP
IND
48%
24%
29%
50 50 0 0
24 Apr. 2013
FLA
Flamengo
1 - 1
Marília
MAR
81%
14%
5%
49 76 27 +1
21 Apr. 2013
MAR
Marília
1 - 0
Batatais
BAT
51%
23%
26%
49 48 1 0
14 Apr. 2013
MAR
Marília
2 - 0
Taubaté
TAU
44%
24%
32%
47 49 2 +2

Matches

Flamengo
Flamengo
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
05 May. 2013
FLA
Flamengo
0 - 1
Batatais
BAT
85%
12%
4%
76 48 28 0
02 May. 2013
CAM
Campinense
1 - 2
Flamengo
FLA
19%
23%
59%
76 56 20 0
28 Apr. 2013
BAT
Batatais
1 - 3
Flamengo
FLA
11%
19%
70%
76 48 28 0
24 Apr. 2013
FLA
Flamengo
1 - 1
Marília
MAR
81%
14%
5%
76 49 27 0
21 Apr. 2013
IND
Independente SP
2 - 1
Flamengo
FLA
13%
20%
68%
77 49 28 -1