Europa League Fase Final. Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Manchester City vs Hamburger SV analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.2%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.1%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.1%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.8%
35%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20%
0-2
6%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
MAC
1 - 3
FUL
50%
26%
24%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2009 |
HSV
3 - 1
MAC
50%
27%
23%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2009 |
ARS
2 - 0
MAC
68%
20%
12%
|
85 | 93 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2009 |
MAC
1 - 0
SUN
58%
24%
19%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2009 |
AAB
2 - 0
MAC
43%
27%
31%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Hamburger SV
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
STU
1 - 0
HSV
38%
26%
36%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2009 |
HSV
3 - 1
MAC
50%
27%
23%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2009 |
HSV
1 - 0
HOF
59%
23%
18%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 2009 |
S04
1 - 2
HSV
37%
28%
36%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2009 |
GAL
2 - 3
HSV
48%
25%
28%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |