Machico vs Guarda Desportiva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.8%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
19.9%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+58%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
8º
13º
10º
10
2º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
67% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
33% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Machico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
LUS
2 - 0
MAC
79%
14%
7%
|
27 | 46 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
MAC
2 - 0
GON
16%
21%
63%
|
23 | 41 | 18 | +4 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
SAL
2 - 0
MAC
81%
14%
5%
|
23 | 47 | 24 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
MAC
2 - 2
REB
17%
21%
63%
|
22 | 38 | 16 | +1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
ALP
2 - 2
MAC
71%
16%
13%
|
22 | 32 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Guarda Desportiva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
GUA
1 - 5
LEC
17%
19%
64%
|
23 | 39 | 16 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
CAS
4 - 0
GUA
61%
20%
19%
|
24 | 34 | 10 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
GUA
1 - 2
BMA
15%
22%
63%
|
24 | 44 | 20 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 0
GUA
77%
14%
9%
|
25 | 41 | 16 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
RES
2 - 4
GUA
54%
20%
25%
|
24 | 27 | 3 | +1 |