Machico vs Castro Daire analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
7.7%
Win probability
0.58
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.9%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.4%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
2.2%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
6%
16%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
16%
76.2%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
23.7%
0-2
14.8%
1-3
6.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.6%
0-3
11.4%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
15.7%
0-4
6.5%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
8.5%
0-5
3%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.7%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
8º
13º
10º
20
7º
13º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
67% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
33% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Machico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2021 |
MAC
0 - 5
SMA
14%
18%
68%
|
15 | 40 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2018 |
SMA
6 - 1
MAC
81%
13%
7%
|
16 | 44 | 28 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 2017 |
FEL
4 - 0
MAC
79%
14%
8%
|
16 | 44 | 28 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2015 |
CAL
2 - 2
MAC
75%
15%
10%
|
16 | 21 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2015 |
MAC
3 - 2
BAR
36%
23%
42%
|
14 | 18 | 4 | +2 |
Matches
Castro Daire
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 2022 |
CAS
0 - 0
COI
14%
24%
62%
|
44 | 68 | 24 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2022 |
FAV
1 - 0
CAS
14%
20%
67%
|
45 | 23 | 22 | -1 |
| 24 Apr. 2022 |
GOU
0 - 2
CAS
15%
20%
65%
|
45 | 25 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2022 |
COI
0 - 0
CAS
73%
19%
8%
|
44 | 68 | 24 | +1 |
| 03 Apr. 2022 |
CAS
3 - 0
FAV
81%
13%
6%
|
44 | 22 | 22 | 0 |