FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.4%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.3%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.1%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
36.8%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
10.8%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
59
1º
8º
2º
40
6º
12º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
STA
1 - 3
LUG
19%
21%
60%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 0
YVE
61%
22%
17%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
STG
2 - 3
LUG
43%
23%
34%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
FCL
0 - 1
LUG
35%
24%
41%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Feb. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
LUG
43%
24%
33%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
ZUR
46%
25%
29%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 1
WIN
56%
23%
22%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
YOB
5 - 1
BAS
45%
24%
32%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
LAU
65%
21%
15%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
LUG
43%
24%
33%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | +1 |