Lucchese Libertas vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.4%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.7%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.5%
22.2%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.5%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+26%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 1948 |
BAR
0 - 0
ASL
36%
25%
39%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1948 |
ASL
0 - 1
ATL
59%
22%
20%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1948 |
INT
4 - 0
ASL
72%
16%
13%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 1948 |
SAM
5 - 0
ASL
63%
18%
19%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Nov. 1948 |
ASL
0 - 0
GEN
45%
23%
32%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 1948 |
NOV
1 - 2
GEN
34%
25%
42%
|
70 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1948 |
ROM
4 - 1
NOV
58%
21%
21%
|
70 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1948 |
LIV
1 - 0
NOV
51%
23%
26%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 1948 |
NOV
3 - 1
BAR
49%
24%
27%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 1948 |
PRO
5 - 0
NOV
56%
22%
23%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | -1 |