Independente AP vs Oratorio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
40.3%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
12%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22.1%
37.5%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
4.1%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+39%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente AP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
2 - 0
IAP
37%
24%
39%
|
33 | 30 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
POL
0 - 2
IAP
33%
23%
44%
|
32 | 24 | 8 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2025 |
IAP
0 - 2
TDC
37%
24%
39%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | -2 |
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
YAP
0 - 0
IAP
23%
25%
52%
|
34 | 23 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
IAP
2 - 2
CRI
36%
22%
42%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Oratorio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
2 - 0
IAP
37%
24%
39%
|
30 | 33 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2025 |
TDC
0 - 1
ORC
52%
22%
26%
|
29 | 38 | 9 | +1 |
| 11 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
1 - 0
SAN
37%
23%
40%
|
28 | 29 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
SEC
1 - 4
ORC
22%
19%
59%
|
27 | 16 | 11 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
1 - 1
POL
44%
23%
34%
|
27 | 25 | 2 | 0 |