HNK Zadar vs Kaštel Gomilica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19%
15.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+56%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
68
1º
6º
1º
46
2º
11º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
68 | 71 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
64 | 67 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
54 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 50 |
4º
|
78% | |
|
|
5º
|
46 | 47 |
5º
|
78% | |
|
8º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
59.5% | |
|
6º
|
41 | 41 |
7º
|
39.5% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 41 |
8º
|
36.5% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
60.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 35 |
10º
|
32.5% | |
|
11º
|
34 | 35 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
33 | 34 |
12º
|
44.5% | |
|
13º
|
31 | 32 |
13º
|
68% | |
|
14º
|
30 | 30 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
|
15º
|
27 | 28 |
15º
|
92.5% | |
|
16º
|
21 | 22 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
HNK Zadar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
SMR
0 - 4
HNK
26%
25%
49%
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
HNK
3 - 2
NER
68%
18%
14%
|
46 | 35 | 11 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
KAM
1 - 3
HNK
23%
24%
53%
|
45 | 28 | 17 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
HNK
0 - 0
DUB
37%
23%
40%
|
45 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
HNK
0 - 0
SUT
13%
18%
69%
|
45 | 67 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Kaštel Gomilica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
NKG
1 - 2
NKH
44%
25%
31%
|
40 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
GOS
0 - 1
NKG
17%
20%
63%
|
39 | 25 | 14 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
NKG
3 - 0
MAK
66%
18%
16%
|
38 | 27 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
NKG
2 - 0
PRB
46%
22%
32%
|
37 | 36 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
JUN
1 - 1
NKG
63%
20%
18%
|
37 | 45 | 8 | 0 |