Hercílio Luz vs Chapecoense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
15.9%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
4%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11.4%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
23.7%
60.4%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
15%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.4%
0-2
12.7%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18.8%
0-3
7.2%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
9.7%
0-4
3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.9%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 0
HER
45%
27%
28%
|
49 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2022 |
BAR
1 - 0
HER
34%
28%
38%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 2022 |
HER
1 - 0
CAM
47%
26%
28%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | +1 |
| 09 Feb. 2022 |
CAC
0 - 0
HER
42%
27%
30%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2022 |
HER
4 - 1
FFL
20%
25%
55%
|
47 | 61 | 14 | +2 |
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 2022 |
CHA
1 - 1
CAM
74%
18%
8%
|
69 | 50 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2022 |
CAC
0 - 1
CHA
15%
24%
62%
|
68 | 50 | 18 | +1 |
| 13 Feb. 2022 |
CHA
1 - 0
FFL
58%
24%
19%
|
68 | 61 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2022 |
JEC
2 - 1
CHA
14%
23%
63%
|
69 | 49 | 20 | -1 |
| 05 Feb. 2022 |
CHA
1 - 3
BRU
52%
25%
23%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | -1 |