Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
35.1%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.2%
1-0
8%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.2%
25%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
39.8%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
20.7%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
11.8%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
16º
18º
17º
9
1º
6º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
9 | 63 |
1º
|
32% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 61 |
2º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
9 | 58 |
3º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 57 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 57 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 56 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 50 |
7º
|
8.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 49 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 49 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 46 |
10º
|
7.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 43 |
11º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
3 | 41 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 40 |
13º
|
9.5% | |
|
15º
|
1 | 37 |
14º
|
9% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 36 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 35 |
16º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
17º
|
15% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 34 |
18º
|
24% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 12.5% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 11% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 12.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0.5% | 14.5% |
|
Next round
|
4.5% | 30% |
|
Mid-table
|
50% | 19% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
15% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
30% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2025 |
UTR
4 - 0
HER
58%
22%
20%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
HER
3 - 1
RKC
56%
22%
23%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2025 |
HER
1 - 2
EXC
47%
23%
30%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2025 |
PRE
1 - 4
HER
36%
25%
39%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
HER
2 - 1
DEN
48%
23%
30%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
NEC Nijmegen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
NEC
5 - 0
EXC
55%
22%
23%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
NEC
3 - 1
BBU
70%
18%
12%
|
87 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
NEC
2 - 3
PAO
62%
20%
18%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
DET
0 - 3
NEC
14%
21%
65%
|
87 | 65 | 22 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
GRO
1 - 2
NEC
34%
25%
41%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |