Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.7%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.5%
13.8%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2011 |
GRO
1 - 4
HER
54%
24%
23%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
HER
6 - 1
VIT
52%
25%
24%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2011 |
UTR
1 - 1
HER
61%
22%
17%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | +1 |
| 12 Feb. 2011 |
FEY
2 - 1
HER
56%
23%
21%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | -1 |
| 06 Feb. 2011 |
HER
1 - 0
RJC
40%
26%
34%
|
70 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 2011 |
EXC
2 - 3
PSV
18%
24%
59%
|
64 | 88 | 24 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2011 |
VVV
1 - 0
EXC
49%
24%
26%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2011 |
EXC
4 - 0
WIL
73%
17%
10%
|
64 | 55 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2011 |
NEC
2 - 0
EXC
59%
23%
18%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2011 |
EXC
2 - 1
AZA
19%
24%
57%
|
63 | 84 | 21 | +1 |