Heracles vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.9%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.6%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.5%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
61.8%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.3%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.7%
0-3
6.7%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.3%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.4%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
7º
16º
14º
56
2º
10º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
91 | 91 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
84 | 84 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 53 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
33 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 24 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
HER
1 - 1
VOL
62%
21%
17%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
RKC
1 - 2
HER
33%
25%
42%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
PSV
1 - 1
HER
78%
14%
8%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | +1 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
HER
0 - 4
FEY
18%
21%
61%
|
76 | 89 | 13 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
VIT
2 - 0
HER
37%
26%
38%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
AJA
4 - 1
RKC
75%
15%
10%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
GAE
2 - 3
AJA
19%
21%
60%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
AJA
2 - 1
HAN
75%
15%
10%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | +1 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
AJA
0 - 3
HAN
76%
15%
9%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
USV
3 - 2
AJA
5%
13%
82%
|
88 | 58 | 30 | -1 |