UCL Qualifying Third round Final
Global 2-3
Grazer AK vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
28.3%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.6%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.7%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.2%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
46.1%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.9%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grazer AK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2003 |
GRA
2 - 1
TIR
61%
23%
16%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2003 |
RBS
1 - 2
GRA
46%
25%
30%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2003 |
TIR
1 - 5
GRA
45%
25%
30%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2003 |
1 - 2
GRA
40%
24%
36%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2003 |
GRA
1 - 0
AWM
65%
21%
14%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2003 |
AJA
3 - 0
SCH
75%
15%
10%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2003 |
TWE
1 - 2
AJA
18%
24%
58%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2003 |
AJA
7 - 1
GRA
88%
9%
3%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2003 |
NEC
1 - 2
AJA
20%
24%
56%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2003 |
AJA
6 - 1
RKC
79%
14%
8%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |