Genoa vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
42.7%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.1%
32.2%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Genoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2006 |
GEN
1 - 0
FIO
26%
26%
48%
|
68 | 85 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2006 |
GEN
3 - 2
SPE
60%
22%
18%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2006 |
TER
1 - 1
GEN
28%
27%
45%
|
68 | 56 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2006 |
GEN
1 - 3
CTT
71%
19%
11%
|
69 | 58 | 11 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 2006 |
SSS
2 - 1
GEN
20%
27%
54%
|
70 | 54 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2006 |
MOD
1 - 1
MAN
53%
25%
21%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2006 |
MOD
3 - 0
TER
67%
21%
12%
|
76 | 57 | 19 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2006 |
MAN
1 - 1
MOD
33%
27%
39%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2006 |
MOD
0 - 0
MAN
56%
24%
20%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2006 |
ATL
0 - 1
MOD
53%
26%
21%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |