Fraga vs Casetas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.1%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.9%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.4%
11.5%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fraga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
PEN
1 - 1
FRA
32%
24%
44%
|
19 | 15 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
FRA
3 - 1
CFJ
74%
17%
10%
|
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
UNI
2 - 2
FRA
78%
15%
8%
|
19 | 34 | 15 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
FRA
2 - 1
SDB
35%
24%
41%
|
18 | 23 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
TAM
2 - 3
FRA
55%
22%
23%
|
17 | 20 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Casetas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May. 2011 |
UDC
1 - 0
ROB
31%
24%
45%
|
14 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
UDC
4 - 3
PEN
44%
23%
33%
|
13 | 16 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
CFJ
1 - 1
UDC
48%
25%
27%
|
13 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
UDC
0 - 2
UNI
12%
20%
69%
|
14 | 33 | 19 | -1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
SDB
1 - 2
UDC
77%
15%
8%
|
13 | 23 | 10 | +1 |