Fortuna Köln vs Preußen Münster analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
25.5%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.8%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
49.9%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
15.2%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
54
3º
16º
5º
76
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
76 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
65 | 66 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
3º
|
63 | 64 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
58 | 58 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
54 | 55 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 54 |
6º
|
37% | |
|
7º
|
52 | 53 |
7º
|
28% | |
|
8º
|
50 | 51 |
8º
|
42% | |
|
9º
|
48 | 49 |
9º
|
90% | |
|
11º
|
45 | 48 |
10º
|
72.5% | |
|
10º
|
46 | 46 |
11º
|
72.5% | |
|
12º
|
41 | 41 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
41 | 41 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
40 | 40 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
36 | 37 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
22 | 22 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 17 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
39.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
60.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortuna Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
STR
0 - 1
KÖL
15%
22%
63%
|
52 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
KÖL
1 - 4
FOR
68%
19%
13%
|
53 | 41 | 12 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
BOR
1 - 2
KÖL
33%
25%
42%
|
52 | 46 | 6 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
KÖL
3 - 2
DUR
63%
21%
16%
|
51 | 43 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
AAA
1 - 2
KÖL
35%
26%
40%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Preußen Münster
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
FOR
1 - 6
PRE
20%
22%
58%
|
59 | 44 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
PRE
2 - 0
DUR
73%
18%
10%
|
58 | 41 | 17 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
ROT
3 - 2
PRE
28%
25%
48%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
PRE
1 - 1
KMA
73%
18%
9%
|
60 | 43 | 17 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
AAA
4 - 2
PRE
16%
23%
61%
|
60 | 44 | 16 | 0 |