Conmebol Sudamericana Eliminatorias. Last 16
Global 2-1
Fortaleza EC vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.5%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.9%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.1%
13.4%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
GOI
1 - 0
FOR
31%
27%
41%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2023 |
LIB
0 - 1
FOR
29%
26%
45%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
FOR
0 - 3
BRA
53%
24%
24%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
PAL
3 - 1
FOR
59%
23%
19%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | -1 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
FOR
0 - 1
CUI
69%
20%
12%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
LIB
0 - 0
JLM
56%
23%
21%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2023 |
LIB
0 - 1
FOR
29%
26%
45%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
AME
0 - 2
LIB
43%
25%
32%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2023 |
LIB
4 - 3
GUA
57%
24%
19%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2023 |
TIG
0 - 1
LIB
42%
26%
33%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |