Copa Sudamericana Knock-outs Semi-finals
Global 3-1
Fortaleza EC vs Corinthians analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
54.6%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
21%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-17%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
FOR
1 - 1
GRE
51%
25%
24%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
COR
1 - 1
FOR
48%
26%
26%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2023 |
SAO
1 - 2
FOR
49%
26%
25%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2023 |
FOR
2 - 1
COR
55%
25%
20%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
FLU
1 - 0
FOR
51%
25%
24%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Corinthians
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
SAO
2 - 1
COR
53%
26%
22%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
COR
1 - 1
FOR
48%
26%
26%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
COR
1 - 0
BOT
49%
26%
25%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | +1 |
| 19 Sep. 2023 |
COR
4 - 4
GRE
47%
27%
26%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2023 |
FOR
2 - 1
COR
55%
25%
20%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |