Conmebol Sudamericana Playoffs. 1/16
Global 3-0
Fluminense vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.8%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.5%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
20.8%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
CEA
1 - 0
FLU
25%
26%
49%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2018 |
FLU
1 - 0
PAL
24%
24%
52%
|
78 | 87 | 9 | +1 |
| 22 Jul. 2018 |
SPO
1 - 2
FLU
41%
26%
33%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2018 |
VAS
1 - 1
FLU
45%
26%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2018 |
FLU
0 - 1
SAN
41%
26%
33%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
DEF
1 - 2
DAN
51%
25%
24%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2018 |
ATE
2 - 5
DEF
37%
27%
37%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | +1 |
| 07 Jun. 2018 |
DEF
1 - 3
PEÑ
26%
26%
48%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2018 |
TOR
1 - 0
DEF
34%
26%
40%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 May. 2018 |
BOS
1 - 2
DEF
42%
27%
32%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | +1 |