Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
29.3%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
45.8%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.7%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
13.8%
0-3
4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.3%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
61
1º
10º
2º
72
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
54 | 54 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
53 | 53 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
53 | 53 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
51 | 51 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 41 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 28 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 100% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2025 |
STA
2 - 4
FCA
44%
24%
33%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
FCA
2 - 1
BEL
49%
25%
26%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
STA
1 - 2
FCA
25%
23%
52%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
BIE
3 - 5
FCA
21%
20%
59%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2025 |
FCA
2 - 1
ERZ
41%
23%
35%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2025 |
THU
2 - 0
BEL
65%
21%
14%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
SCH
2 - 3
THU
15%
22%
62%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | +1 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
THU
3 - 1
FCV
53%
23%
24%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
THU
2 - 2
RAP
64%
19%
16%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
THU
1 - 2
KRI
75%
16%
10%
|
80 | 60 | 20 | 0 |