Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
42.6%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.7%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
31.8%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.4%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2014 |
LAU
0 - 1
FCA
29%
26%
46%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 2
ZUR
28%
23%
48%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Feb. 2014 |
FCL
3 - 2
FCA
52%
25%
23%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2014 |
GCZ
1 - 2
FCA
54%
25%
21%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 1
STG
33%
25%
42%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 2014 |
THU
2 - 2
BAS
27%
24%
49%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2014 |
THU
3 - 1
SIO
52%
25%
23%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2014 |
ZUR
3 - 1
THU
52%
26%
23%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2014 |
THU
2 - 1
FCL
36%
26%
38%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2014 |
YOB
2 - 1
THU
59%
23%
19%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |