Aarau vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.5%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.9%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
19%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.9%
13.5%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.4%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-19%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1985 |
FCW
1 - 6
FCA
43%
26%
32%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1985 |
FCA
2 - 2
LAU
64%
20%
16%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1985 |
FCA
4 - 0
BAD
82%
12%
6%
|
76 | 51 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1985 |
VEV
1 - 1
FCA
41%
26%
33%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 1985 |
SER
4 - 2
FCA
68%
18%
14%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1985 |
FCL
3 - 0
BAD
76%
16%
8%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1985 |
VEV
4 - 2
FCL
53%
24%
23%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Aug. 1985 |
FCW
1 - 1
FCL
57%
23%
21%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1985 |
FCL
5 - 1
LAU
49%
24%
26%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | +2 |
| 10 Aug. 1985 |
FCL
3 - 1
SIO
35%
26%
39%
|
64 | 79 | 15 | +1 |