Excelsior vs Willem II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.5%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.1%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
35.1%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2017 |
HER
4 - 0
EXC
63%
22%
16%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2017 |
EXC
1 - 1
TWE
27%
25%
48%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2017 |
GRO
1 - 1
EXC
63%
22%
15%
|
62 | 73 | 11 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2017 |
RJC
4 - 0
EXC
48%
26%
26%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2017 |
EXC
1 - 1
GAE
49%
24%
27%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Willem II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2017 |
WIL
1 - 1
AZA
22%
23%
55%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2017 |
VIT
0 - 2
WIL
62%
22%
16%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | +1 |
| 04 Feb. 2017 |
WIL
1 - 3
HER
44%
26%
30%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | -1 |
| 27 Jan. 2017 |
WIL
3 - 2
SPA
37%
27%
36%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2017 |
FEY
1 - 0
WIL
77%
15%
8%
|
70 | 84 | 14 | 0 |