Excelsior vs Utrecht analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.8%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.3%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
53.8%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
16.5%
0-3
5.5%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.4%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
5º
16º
16º
50
7º
18º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
91 | 91 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
84 | 84 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 53 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
33 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 24 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2024 |
EXC
3 - 0
SCH
31%
25%
44%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2024 |
EXC
0 - 2
GRO
44%
23%
33%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | -1 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
PSV
3 - 1
EXC
75%
15%
10%
|
70 | 89 | 19 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2023 |
SPA
2 - 3
EXC
23%
21%
56%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
EXC
1 - 1
GAE
32%
26%
42%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Utrecht
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
UTR
1 - 1
PSV
22%
22%
56%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
VIT
0 - 0
UTR
30%
26%
45%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
UTR
4 - 4
WAA
45%
24%
31%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2023 |
FEY
2 - 1
UTR
70%
18%
13%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
UTR
1 - 1
RKC
61%
22%
17%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |