Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
16%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.7%
1-0
6%
2-1
4.2%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11.3%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
61.3%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
0-1
13.5%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.7%
0-2
12.1%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19%
0-3
7.3%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
10.2%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.3%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 1
EXC
78%
15%
7%
|
64 | 88 | 24 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
EXC
1 - 1
ADO
30%
25%
46%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 2011 |
VVV
0 - 0
EXC
47%
24%
29%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2011 |
EXC
1 - 0
RKC
24%
24%
52%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 2011 |
EXC
0 - 3
GVV
64%
19%
17%
|
63 | 54 | 9 | -2 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
SCH
5 - 1
AZA
34%
25%
42%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2011 |
MFF
0 - 0
AZA
32%
27%
42%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2011 |
AZA
2 - 0
UTR
71%
18%
11%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
AZA
3 - 0
ADO
67%
19%
13%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | +1 |
| 03 Nov. 2011 |
AUS
2 - 2
AZA
38%
26%
36%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | -1 |