Eredivisie round 2

Excelsior vs Ajax analysis

Excelsior Ajax
68 ELO 88
15.9% Tilt 14.8%
611º General ELO ranking 102º
18º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
13%
Excelsior
18.5%
Draw
68.5%
Ajax

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12.9%
Win probability
Excelsior
0.85
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3%
1-0
4%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
68.5%
Win probability
Ajax
2.22
Expected goals
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.6%
0-2
11.5%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.5%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.3%
0-4
4.7%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.8%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Excelsior
+7%
+6%
Ajax

Points and table prediction

Excelsior
Their league position
Ajax
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
16º
16º
56
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
PSV
91
91
100%
Feyenoord
84
84
100%
Twente
69
69
100%
AZ Alkmaar
65
65
100%
Ajax
56
56
100%
NEC Nijmegen
53
53
100%
Utrecht
50
50
100%
Sparta Rotterdam
49
49
100%
Go Ahead Eagles
46
46
100%
Fortuna Sittard
10º
38
38
10º
100%
Heerenveen
11º
37
37
11º
100%
PEC Zwolle
12º
36
36
12º
100%
Almere City
13º
34
34
13º
100%
Heracles
14º
33
33
14º
100%
RKC Waalwijk
15º
29
29
15º
0%
Excelsior
16º
29
29
16º
0%
Vitesse
18º
6
24
17º
100%
FC Volendam
17º
19
19
18º
100%
Expected probabilities
Excelsior
Ajax
Champion
0% 0%
Champions League
0% 0%
Champions League qualifying phase
0% 0%
Europa League
0% 0%
Europa League qualifying phase
0% 100%
Play-offs
0% 0%
Mid-table
100% 0%
Relegation play-offs
0% 0%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

Excelsior
Ajax
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Excelsior
Excelsior
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
14 Aug. 2023
EXC
Excelsior
1 - 1
Quick Boys
QUI
82%
12%
6%
67 50 17 0
13 Aug. 2023
NEC
NEC Nijmegen
3 - 4
Excelsior
EXC
59%
23%
18%
67 75 8 0
05 Aug. 2023
ZUL
Zulte-Waregem
0 - 1
Excelsior
EXC
51%
21%
28%
66 66 0 +1
28 Jul. 2023
HER
Heracles
2 - 1
Excelsior
EXC
67%
18%
15%
66 77 11 0
22 Jul. 2023
NAC
NAC Breda
2 - 0
Excelsior
EXC
47%
24%
29%
66 70 4 0

Matches

Ajax
Ajax
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
12 Aug. 2023
AJA
Ajax
4 - 1
Heracles
HER
72%
17%
12%
88 78 10 0
06 Aug. 2023
BVB
B. Dortmund
3 - 1
Ajax
AJA
63%
19%
18%
88 91 3 0
29 Jul. 2023
AUG
FC Augsburg
3 - 1
Ajax
AJA
16%
20%
65%
88 79 9 0
22 Jul. 2023
AND
Anderlecht
3 - 0
Ajax
AJA
20%
22%
58%
88 82 6 0
18 Jul. 2023
AJA
Ajax
3 - 0
Shakhtar Donetsk
SHA
60%
20%
20%
88 85 3 0