Excelsior .31 vs Heino analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.1%
Win probability
2.64
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
4%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.3%
4-0
7.7%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.6%
3-0
11.6%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.4%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.3%
1-0
10%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
13.3%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.3%
6.6%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
67
1º
8º
1º
31
11º
16º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
67 | 70 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
60 | 63 |
2º
|
88% | |
|
3º
|
59 | 59 |
3º
|
88% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 50 |
4º
|
89.5% | |
|
5º
|
45 | 46 |
5º
|
67.5% | |
|
6º
|
44 | 45 |
6º
|
78% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 41 |
7º
|
64.5% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 41 |
8º
|
64.5% | |
|
10º
|
35 | 36 |
9º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
32 | 35 |
10º
|
35% | |
|
9º
|
35 | 35 |
11º
|
26% | |
|
|
12º
|
31 | 32 |
12º
|
38% | |
|
13º
|
30 | 31 |
13º
|
43% | |
|
14º
|
30 | 30 |
14º
|
38% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 30 |
15º
|
56.5% | |
|
16º
|
15 | 15 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
100% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 58% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 38.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 3.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior .31
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
PEL
3 - 3
EXC
18%
23%
59%
|
45 | 32 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
EXC
6 - 3
MAS
75%
15%
10%
|
45 | 30 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
QUI
1 - 3
EXC
35%
24%
41%
|
44 | 36 | 8 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
AZS
0 - 2
EXC
32%
26%
42%
|
43 | 38 | 5 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
EXC
2 - 2
SDV
67%
19%
14%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Heino
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
HEI
0 - 2
SDV
36%
24%
41%
|
34 | 38 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
VVS
1 - 1
HEI
74%
17%
10%
|
33 | 44 | 11 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 2023 |
HEI
1 - 1
ROH
27%
22%
51%
|
33 | 39 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
BER
4 - 0
HEI
61%
22%
17%
|
34 | 39 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
HEI
1 - 3
DET
29%
25%
47%
|
35 | 40 | 5 | -1 |