Ethiopia vs Sudan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.4%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.1%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.1%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
25.7%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2005 |
UGA
0 - 0
ETH
46%
25%
29%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2005 |
SDN
1 - 5
ETH
43%
25%
33%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Mar. 2005 |
SDN
3 - 1
ETH
42%
25%
33%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Dec. 2004 |
ETH
3 - 0
BDI
69%
18%
13%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2004 |
ETH
5 - 4
KEN
38%
27%
36%
|
66 | 72 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Sudan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2005 |
SDN
4 - 1
SOM
75%
16%
10%
|
65 | 45 | 20 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2005 |
SDN
1 - 5
ETH
43%
25%
33%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2005 |
SDN
1 - 3
CIV
21%
27%
52%
|
67 | 85 | 18 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2005 |
LBY
0 - 0
SDN
62%
22%
16%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2005 |
SDN
1 - 0
BEN
64%
20%
16%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | +1 |