Ethiopia vs South Africa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.7%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.1%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12.5%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
9.3%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.8%
57.5%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
14.9%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.3%
0-2
12%
1-3
5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.8%
0-3
6.5%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
8.7%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-23%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jun. 2013 |
BOT
3 - 0
ETH
40%
27%
33%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2013 |
ETH
1 - 0
BOT
44%
27%
29%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2013 |
ETH
0 - 2
NGA
13%
22%
65%
|
63 | 87 | 24 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2013 |
BFA
4 - 0
ETH
52%
23%
25%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2013 |
ZAM
1 - 1
ETH
61%
22%
17%
|
64 | 78 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jun. 2013 |
CTA
0 - 3
RSA
7%
18%
75%
|
84 | 18 | 66 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2013 |
LSO
0 - 2
RSA
11%
21%
69%
|
83 | 51 | 32 | +1 |
| 23 Mar. 2013 |
RSA
2 - 0
CTA
84%
13%
3%
|
83 | 18 | 65 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2013 |
RSA
1 - 1
MLI
49%
26%
25%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
MAR
2 - 2
RSA
44%
26%
31%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |