Derry City vs Dundalk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
46.3%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.9%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
27.1%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.1%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
65
1º
4º
2º
58
3º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
65 | 65 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
62 | 62 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
60 | 60 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
58 | 58 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
58 | 58 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
41 | 41 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
31 | 31 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 11 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derry City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2023 |
BOH
0 - 1
DER
37%
27%
36%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2023 |
DRO
0 - 1
DER
16%
26%
58%
|
76 | 60 | 16 | +1 |
| 01 May. 2023 |
DER
0 - 2
SHR
45%
27%
28%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2023 |
DER
2 - 0
STP
55%
25%
20%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 2023 |
CAO
1 - 3
DER
18%
27%
55%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Dundalk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2023 |
DUN
2 - 1
CAO
77%
16%
8%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2023 |
SLR
0 - 1
DUN
32%
29%
39%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2023 |
UCD
0 - 2
DUN
15%
24%
61%
|
74 | 53 | 21 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2023 |
DUN
3 - 2
DRO
73%
17%
10%
|
74 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2023 |
SHE
1 - 1
DUN
30%
29%
41%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | 0 |