Derby County Sub 21 vs Newcastle Sub 21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.5%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.2%
1-0
2.4%
2-1
2.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
6.6%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.3%
76.2%
Win probability
2.72
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.7%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
8.1%
2-4
2.4%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
21%
0-3
9.2%
1-4
5.5%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
16.2%
0-4
6.3%
1-5
3%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
9.9%
0-5
3.4%
1-6
1.4%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
5%
0-6
1.5%
1-7
0.5%
2-8
0.1%
-6
2.2%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
0.8%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
10º
11º
23
4º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
43 | 43 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 42 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 30 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 20 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 14 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
1 | 1 |
11º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County Sub 21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2023 |
AVI
3 - 0
DCO
91%
7%
3%
|
17 | 45 | 28 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 5
WBA
8%
13%
80%
|
19 | 41 | 22 | -2 |
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 3
SOU
6%
12%
82%
|
19 | 46 | 27 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 5
MID
11%
14%
75%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 6
STC
30%
22%
48%
|
21 | 28 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Newcastle Sub 21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2023 |
NWC
4 - 3
NOR
16%
21%
63%
|
35 | 50 | 15 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2023 |
NWC
0 - 0
MID
37%
21%
42%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
NOT
3 - 1
NWC
69%
18%
13%
|
35 | 45 | 10 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
NWC
2 - 5
WBA
36%
24%
40%
|
36 | 40 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Feb. 2023 |
STC
2 - 2
NWC
28%
21%
52%
|
37 | 29 | 8 | -1 |