Derby County vs Southport analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
85.3%
Win probability
2.67
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.1%
+7
1%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.7%
5-0
5.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
6.3%
4-0
9.8%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.2%
+4
12.1%
3-0
14.7%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
19.1%
2-0
16.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
20.3%
11.1%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
5%
2-2
1.3%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
11.1%
3.6%
Win probability
0.4
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec. 2014 |
DER
2 - 0
LEE
73%
17%
10%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2014 |
BIR
0 - 4
DER
34%
26%
40%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 2014 |
DER
2 - 2
NOR
50%
25%
26%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2014 |
DER
1 - 3
CHL
11%
18%
72%
|
77 | 93 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2014 |
MID
2 - 0
DER
37%
27%
36%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Southport
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2014 |
KID
0 - 1
SOU
63%
21%
16%
|
50 | 57 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2014 |
SOU
0 - 1
WRE
40%
26%
34%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2014 |
WOK
1 - 2
SOU
61%
21%
17%
|
49 | 56 | 7 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 2014 |
WRE
2 - 0
SOU
56%
23%
22%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 Dec. 2014 |
SOU
1 - 1
WRE
37%
26%
38%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | 0 |