Derby County vs Reading analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.5%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.3%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
18.1%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2002 |
SUN
1 - 1
DER
55%
25%
20%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2002 |
DER
0 - 1
LEE
29%
27%
45%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2002 |
LIV
2 - 0
DER
71%
18%
10%
|
72 | 91 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2002 |
DER
2 - 3
NEW
29%
26%
45%
|
73 | 86 | 13 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2002 |
SOU
2 - 0
DER
61%
22%
17%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Reading
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 2002 |
BRE
1 - 1
REA
45%
26%
30%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2002 |
REA
2 - 2
POS
66%
21%
13%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2002 |
TRA
2 - 2
REA
44%
25%
30%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2002 |
REA
0 - 0
NOR
71%
18%
10%
|
66 | 51 | 15 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2002 |
BRI
3 - 3
REA
42%
26%
32%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |