Derby County vs Leeds United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
22.2%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2018 |
REA
1 - 2
DER
28%
27%
44%
|
70 | 59 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
DER
2 - 1
WOL
41%
26%
33%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2018 |
COV
0 - 1
DER
25%
24%
51%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2018 |
DER
3 - 0
SOU
30%
27%
43%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2018 |
MAT
1 - 4
DER
6%
14%
79%
|
71 | 35 | 36 | 0 |
Matches
Leeds United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2018 |
LEE
3 - 1
STO
16%
25%
59%
|
64 | 80 | 16 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2018 |
LEE
1 - 0
UDL
22%
22%
56%
|
65 | 78 | 13 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2018 |
GUI
3 - 4
LEE
9%
17%
74%
|
65 | 33 | 32 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2018 |
OXF
4 - 3
LEE
30%
23%
48%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2018 |
SOU
1 - 1
LEE
27%
23%
49%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |